The world of forex trading is filled with complexity and uncertainty. Many traders often find themselves struggling to gain an edge in this competitive arena. However, there is a hidden gem of knowledge that could potentially change the game for traders and elevate them into the elite 5% who truly understand the market's behavior. In this article, we will delve into the secret behavior of the forex market, a technique that could significantly improve your trading outcomes.

Understanding Market Behavior

To understand the secret behavior of the forex market, we must first look at currency pairs' historical data. This technique, developed by trading expert Andrea Unger, involves backtesting specific rules to decipher the behavior of different currency pairs. By doing so, we can identify patterns that may not be apparent through conventional analysis.

Here are the rules for conducting this backtest:

1. When a currency pair breaks above the previous week's high, consider going long.
2. Stay in a long position until the price breaks below the previous week's low, then switch to a short position.
3. Remain in a short position until the price breaks above the previous week's high, then revert to a long position.
4. Rinse and repeat.

These rules provide a systematic approach to understanding market behavior, and they can be adapted to different time frames, such as daily or weekly. The key idea is to identify whether a currency pair exhibits trending or reversal behavior.

Trending and Reversal Currency Pairs

Not all currency pairs behave the same way. Some exhibit strong trends, while others tend to reverse direction. By categorizing currency pairs based on their behavior, traders can make more informed decisions. Here are examples of trending and reversal currency pairs:

Trending Currency Pairs:

1. GBP/JPY
2. AUD/JPY
3. USD/TRY

Reversal Currency Pairs:

1. AUD/CAD
2. GBP/CAD
3. USD/CAD

Understanding the behavior of these currency pairs is a valuable tool in a trader's arsenal. It allows them to align their strategies with the prevailing market conditions.

Putting Knowledge into Practice

Now that we have insight into currency pairs' behavior, let's explore how to apply this knowledge in real-world trading scenarios. We'll use the Moving Average Excess Return Expectancy (MAEE) formula in conjunction with the behavior of currency pairs to make informed trading decisions.

Example 1: AUD/CAD (8-Hour Time Frame)

AUD/CAD is in a downtrend, characterized by lower highs and lows. After a pullback to previous support-turned-resistance, it breaks above the previous week's high. Since AUD/CAD is a reversal currency pair, there's potential for a downward reversal. A bearish engulfing pattern confirms the entry trigger, signaling that sellers are in control. This prompts a short position on the next candle open.

Example 2: GBP/CAD (8-Hour Time Frame)

GBP/CAD is in an uptrend, marked by higher highs and lows. A pullback to previous resistance-turned-support occurs, followed by a break below the previous week's low. As GBP/CAD is a reversal currency pair, there's a possibility of an upward reversal. A bullish close, with the price moving above support, serves as the entry trigger for a long position on the next candle open.

Example 3: USD/TRY (Weekly Time Frame)

USD/TRY is in an uptrend, displaying higher highs and lows. After a pullback to previous resistance that now acts as support, a strong bullish close confirms the entry trigger. Since USD/TRY is a trending currency pair, a buy stop order above the previous week's high can be placed. This strategy capitalizes on the likelihood of the price continuing its upward trajectory.

The Role of Forex News

A critical question arises: should traders pay attention to forex news? The answer depends on their trading approach. Traders operating on longer time frames, such as 4-hour or daily, may not need to be overly concerned about news events. Their larger stop losses can withstand market volatility triggered by news releases. However, for those trading on shorter time frames (e.g., 1 hour or below), keeping an eye on news releases is essential. Major news events can lead to sudden market spikes, potentially triggering stop-loss orders.

In conclusion, understanding the secret behavior of the forex market can be a game-changer for traders. By categorizing currency pairs based on their behavior and combining this knowledge with technical analysis, traders can enhance their trading strategies. Whether you choose to pay attention to forex news or not depends on your trading style and risk tolerance. Armed with these insights, you're better prepared to navigate the dynamic world of forex trading and increase your odds of success.

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